Preparing for ‘future shock’ May 29, 2008

This post sets out some of my reflections on the likely future directions of the Internet. 

 

The speed, cost and spread of the Internet

Much of how we use the Internet in the future will be closely linked with the development of faster broadband speeds, and wider access to broadband networks.

We’ve already seen some of the impacts of the introduction of broadband networks. Faster broadband is likely to stimulate the further growth of:

• multimedia content on demand – such as video, movies and music 
• Voice over IP (VOIP) and web-based communication systems such as Skype 
• virtual spaces and online games – such as Second Life and World of Warcraft 
• more innovative use of the Internet in health care, schools and Universities – such as virtual excursions and remote lectures and distance-based learning

How faster broadband impacts on society will depend to a large extent on who gets access – will it be limited to those in large cities, and to those with the capacity to pay? The fact that access to fast broadband (or any broadband) is increasingly viewed as an individual  ‘right’ is shown in the intervention of Governments around the world as both a provider and sponsor of broadband networks.

In a nutshell, faster broadband will open up a range of options for users – some of which we may not even contemplate at the moment. Applying the ‘information ecology’ metaphor, this is a good example of how both people and technology play key roles in the evolution of the dynamic Internet ’system’.

 

The mobile Internet

Over time, we’re increasingly likely to think of the Internet as being on our phone or other portable devices as it is on a PC. We’re already seeing how developments in mobile communication devices, such as mobile phones and PDAs, are making the Internet increasingly portable. As users, our use of the Internet will be less location-specific – we’ll be able to use many applications regardless of where we are. 

The mobile Internet is stimulating new types of applications.

• For example, Twitter is a relatively new application that is capitalising on both the mobile and PC-based Internet. (For one perspective, see What is Twitter, and is there any reason I should care?) 
• As another example, location-aware systems such as Rover are being developed that allow mobile devices to take into account a person’s GPS position. So, if someone searches for a restaurant on a PDA, it could automatically identify venues close to the person’s location.  

The mobile Internet is also likely to influence how we provide content.

• Audio and video images are likely to dominate written content, especially as bandwidth speeds increase. (A picture will be worth a thousand words …)
• Increasing use of small hand-held PDAs may mean that written content on the Internet needs to become even more concise.

 

The Internet as a social space

People will increasingly using the Internet for social interaction. Some key developments include:

• increased use of social networking tools and ’spaces’ – particularly tools that allow group interaction, rather than ‘one-on-one’ communication
• the spread of blogs – giving individuals as authors access to a potentially massive audience
• peer-to-peer networks – allowing content to spread ‘virally’
• virtual spaces – such as online games and Second Life  
• interacting with traditional media online - for example, being able to comment on an online TV show or a newspaper article.

The Pew Internet report in 2005 on the future of the Internet concluded that the Internet will significantly increase the size of people’s social networks:

‘… This will enhance trust in society, as people have a wider range of sources from which to discover and verify information about job opportunities, personal services, common interests and products.’ (Pew Internet, p.11).

This will in turn raise issues about how people manage those networks, and perhaps who they can trust.

Privacy issues will increasingly be of concern where people use the Internet as a social space, for example through social networking sites. The ubiquity of these tools may make it difficult for people to keep track of where and what information they have posted.

Advances in search engines also mean that it’s easier to find information about people on the Internet. For example, the Pipl search engine searches the ‘deep web’ and can retrieve information about individuals that would previously have been difficult to find.

While this increased transparency may appear to do little harm, Internet users will need to make actively informed choices about what information they provide over the Internet.  

 

The question of content

Faster Internet speeds are also radically changing how people access content on the Internet.

On the positive side, Internet users are becoming more empowered as they have access to a wide range of content on demand – they get what they want, when they want it. On the negative side, the ease of downloading large files with broadband and the use of file sharing systems raise significant (and complicated) copyright issues. (See ‘Copying is theft…’).   

There is considerable debate about whether allowing people to use file-sharing systems online hurts sales or stimulates demand. For example, see Music Downloads: Pirates – or Customers?  

However, it is leading to the development of new business models, such as online music (and now TV and movie) stores like iTunes. It is also encouraging content owners to think more laterally about promoting their products. One example is Radiohead’s CD release in 2007, which initially allowed people downloading the album online to pay what they thought it was worth, rather than a set price.   

I think that ‘clever’ content owners will increasingly recognize that some people prefer to access content online, and will adopt strategies to take advantage of this. 

  

Information ecologies May 19, 2008

Task:  As you read, think about the following questions:

• how might the metaphor of an ‘ecology’ impact on the way you think about, understand or use the Internet?
• how are the concepts ‘information’ and ‘communication’ understood within the framework of an ‘information ecology’?
• why don’t we talk of a ‘communication ecology’?

Log entry: Nardi and O’Day (1999) define an information ecology as ‘as system of people, practices, values, and technolgies in a particular local environment’. The concept emphasises how people’s activities are served by how they use technology, rather than the technology itself.

The ‘information ecology’ metaphor gives a framework that emphasises the relationship between different parts of the Internet as a system, including the roles played by technology and people.

Our choice of a framework is important because it influences how we’re likely to approach issues. For example, as discussed by Merrick (on WEBCT), if we think of technologies as a tool, then may limit ourselves from thinking of them in other ways – e.g. as an extension of our ability to communicate.

Here are some examples of applying the ecology metaphor to the Internet: 

• An ecology evolves. In the case of the Internet, evolution (including change and growth) has been rapid over recent years.
• The concept of an ecology is scalable. It can be applied to small information ecologies, such as a workplace or library, or to the Internet itself.
• Ecologies are affected by external factors. For example, the falling real cost of personal computers over the past 20 years has brought about widespread access to computers and the Internet in most countries.
  • In the same vein, the development of further broadband and mobile technologies is a factor that is both external and internal and will affect the evolution of the ‘Internet ecology’.
• The concept refers to a ‘keystone species’ – in a workplace this could be a key person who can link people and technology together by communicating well (e.g. someone who champions the introduction of a new IT system).
• Parts of the system are inter-dependent – for example, if a local network goes down in a workplace, people are unlikely to be able to use their computers in the way they intend. In this case, people depend on actions from other parties to fix the system.
• Parts of the system may play multiple roles depending on their locality – for example a laptop computer may be a tool for work,  an entertainment system for playing games and music, or a device to stay in touch with friends and family.

A key feature of the information ecology metaphor is that it doesn’t place the emphasis on one part – such as technology, information or communciation.

While this metaphor does highlight the key role of communication, using the term ‘communication ecology’ would not be more appropriate, as this would emphaise the social aspects of the Internet. While social networking is increasingly important, the Internet is still primarily used for ‘passively’ sharing information (‘I post, you seek’ and vice versa).

The information ecology metaphor helps us think about using the Internet as a medium for communicating and sharing information. It makes us think of the Internet as a dynamic, evolving system where users play a key role, and where those roles and capabilities changing over time and from place to place. Ultimately, it helps us to think more broadly about our roles as users of the Internet and ’communicators’ on the Internet.