This post sets out some of my reflections on the likely future directions of the Internet.
The speed, cost and spread of the Internet
Much of how we use the Internet in the future will be closely linked with the development of faster broadband speeds, and wider access to broadband networks.
We’ve already seen some of the impacts of the introduction of broadband networks. Faster broadband is likely to stimulate the further growth of:
- multimedia content on demand – such as video, movies and music
- Voice over IP (VOIP) and web-based communication systems such as Skype
- virtual spaces and online games – such as Second Life and World of Warcraft
- more innovative use of the Internet in health care, schools and Universities – such as virtual excursions and remote lectures and distance-based learning
How faster broadband impacts on society will depend to a large extent on who gets access – will it be limited to those in large cities, and to those with the capacity to pay? The fact that access to fast broadband (or any broadband) is increasingly viewed as an individual ‘right’ is shown in the intervention of Governments around the world as both a provider and sponsor of broadband networks.
In a nutshell, faster broadband will open up a range of options for users – some of which we may not even contemplate at the moment. Applying the ‘information ecology’ metaphor, this is a good example of how both people and technology play key roles in the evolution of the dynamic Internet ’system’.
The mobile Internet
Over time, we’re increasingly likely to think of the Internet as being on our phone or other portable devices as it is on a PC. We’re already seeing how developments in mobile communication devices, such as mobile phones and PDAs, are making the Internet increasingly portable. As users, our use of the Internet will be less location-specific – we’ll be able to use many applications regardless of where we are.
The mobile Internet is stimulating new types of applications.
- For example, Twitter is a relatively new application that is capitalising on both the mobile and PC-based Internet. (For one perspective, see What is Twitter, and is there any reason I should care?)
- As another example, location-aware systems such as Rover are being developed that allow mobile devices to take into account a person’s GPS position. So, if someone searches for a restaurant on a PDA, it could automatically identify venues close to the person’s location.
The mobile Internet is also likely to influence how we provide content.
- Audio and video images are likely to dominate written content, especially as bandwidth speeds increase. (A picture will be worth a thousand words …)
- Increasing use of small hand-held PDAs may mean that written content on the Internet needs to become even more concise.
The Internet as a social space
People will increasingly using the Internet for social interaction. Some key developments include:
- increased use of social networking tools and ’spaces’ – particularly tools that allow group interaction, rather than ‘one-on-one’ communication
- the spread of blogs – giving individuals as authors access to a potentially massive audience
- peer-to-peer networks – allowing content to spread ‘virally’
- virtual spaces – such as online games and Second Life
- interacting with traditional media online - for example, being able to comment on an online TV show or a newspaper article.
The Pew Internet report in 2005 on the future of the Internet concluded that the Internet will significantly increase the size of people’s social networks:
‘… This will enhance trust in society, as people have a wider range of sources from which to discover and verify information about job opportunities, personal services, common interests and products.’ (Pew Internet, p.11).
This will in turn raise issues about how people manage those networks, and perhaps who they can trust.
Privacy issues will increasingly be of concern where people use the Internet as a social space, for example through social networking sites. The ubiquity of these tools may make it difficult for people to keep track of where and what information they have posted.
Advances in search engines also mean that it’s easier to find information about people on the Internet. For example, the Pipl search engine searches the ‘deep web’ and can retrieve information about individuals that would previously have been difficult to find.
While this increased transparency may appear to do little harm, Internet users will need to make actively informed choices about what information they provide over the Internet.
The question of content
Faster Internet speeds are also radically changing how people access content on the Internet.
On the positive side, Internet users are becoming more empowered as they have access to a wide range of content on demand – they get what they want, when they want it. On the negative side, the ease of downloading large files with broadband and the use of file sharing systems raise significant (and complicated) copyright issues. (See ‘Copying is theft…’).
There is considerable debate about whether allowing people to use file-sharing systems online hurts sales or stimulates demand. For example, see Music Downloads: Pirates – or Customers?
However, it is leading to the development of new business models, such as online music (and now TV and movie) stores like iTunes. It is also encouraging content owners to think more laterally about promoting their products. One example is Radiohead’s CD release in 2007, which initially allowed people downloading the album online to pay what they thought it was worth, rather than a set price.
I think that ‘clever’ content owners will increasingly recognize that some people prefer to access content online, and will adopt strategies to take advantage of this.
